Sunday, May 14, 2017

Who will win the French Open? Your guess is as good as mine



This year's French Open championship is being described as "totally open" by commentators and tennis writers, and while it isn't that "open," there isn't a clear favorite. Historically, the French has been the hardest to call because players who do really well on hard courts and grass often find their skills neutralized by clay courts--and by experienced clay court players.

Serena Williams won't be at Roland Garros. The defending champion, Garbine Muguruza, doesn't appear to be in the form that took her to to the championship last year. She could grab some last-minute mojo, but I have serious doubts about that.

On paper, Angie Kerber is a contender, but--sadly--she doesn't seem up to it right now.

Who does? In no particular order:

Simona Halep
Who will show up in Paris? Right now, it looks like 2014 Halep will make the trip. It was that year that the Romanian star went all the way to the final and gave Maria Sharapova an extremely tough, three-hour battle. Sharapova said afterwards that it was the most difficult final she had ever played. Halep certainly has what it takes to win the French Open, and this could very well be the year she wins her first major.

Halep just defended her 2016 title in Madrid* (and drama does seem to follow her these day, doesn't it?), something that is hard to do. That's the "up" side. The "down" side is: She won Madrid last year, but failed to get past the round of 16 in Paris. Nevertheless, given the way she's been playing, it's impossible not to consider her a major contender to take the 2017 title.

*The Madrid final played between Halep and Kiki Mladenovic was a beautiful thing to watch. Mladenovic sustained an injury in the semifinals, and was hampered by it in the final. She skillfully played through it, and appeared to overcome it, but in the last part of the third set, it looked as if all the stress had finally taken her down a notch. But that isn't to take anything away from the brilliant performance that Halep put on, defeating Mladenovic 7-5, 6-7, 6-2.

As for Mladenovic, this makes two clay runner-up finishes in a row for her, which has to be disappointing, but which also demonstrates what a threat she has become.

Maria Sharapova
The three-time champion is definitely a contender. Her comeback has been impressive so far, and her vast experience at the business end of Roland Garros should serve her well. We'll know in a few days whether Sharapova gets a wild card into the main draw or into qualifying; it's expected that she'll get one into the qualifying draw. That, of course, means she would have to play an extra three matches, and playing ten matches is a lot to ask of anyone. I hope she gets a wild card into the main draw, but even if she doesn't, I make her a contender. (Also, her unseeded appearance in the draw could spell the end for other contenders.)

Kiki Mladenovic
Mladenovic has been a French Open contender in my head for a few years, though I knew that she wasn't ready--until now. The French star did something to change her mental strength status, and that something--whatever it was--did several things for her. It gave her a huge boost of confidence, more fluidity in working the court, and much more consistency in her already very good serving. She's now a major threat; also, she's excellent at creating crowd frenzy.

Svetlana Kuznetsova
I know--we say it because we want it to be true. But Kuznetsova's season is quite promising, she's a former champion (2009), and when she's "on," she owns a clay court.

The usual suspects--and a few new ones--will be around to spoil things for the main contenders. No one would be fond of stepping into an early round and having to face the likes of Kiki Bertens (who I hope will some day be a serious contender), Charleston champion Daria Kasatkina, Charleston runner-up Jelena Ostapenko, Stuttgart champion Laura Siegemund, Rabat champion Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, the resurgent Anastasija Sevastova, Caroline Garcia, Elina Svitolina, Prague Open champion Mona Barthel, and former French Open finalist Lucie Safarova.

Francesca Schiavone could also be on hand to sweeten the draw. And despite the fact that I don't think they're going to win the championship, Kerber and Muguruza could make it difficult for others to win it.

Could any of these women wind up winning the tournament? Of course, but they don't have the advantages of the four contenders listed above.

The French Open is my favorite of the four majors. It's also the least predictable, and perhaps, this year, it's even less predictable than usual.

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